National security in an independent Wales: Intelligence and military considerations


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Dafis
Guest
Dafis

Interesting & provocative. Briefly, I agree that a first principles approach is essential otherwise we end up with bits of the British Armed Forces reconfigured to fit some kind of “defence budget”. The key to it is to define objectives, and understand the realities of our situation. No point spending all our GDP on an army, and equally daft to do away with all capability. As the writer says, intelligence is critical as it enables informed decision making. Here I’m not talking about a “Blair” approach to intelligence, where facts are bent or ignored to suit the “political need” of… Read more »

kim erswell
Guest
kim erswell

I’d suggest a millitia where everyone, who has no mental health issues or criminal record, and is correctly trained is allowed to bear arms – if they so choose – in defence of their country and personal freedom. I’m thinking a Swiss model – not U.S.
Say, Cymru had several hundred thousand people under arms and determined to defend their rights – well, thats not an attractive enemy to attack: from those without and from within.

Eos Pengwern
Guest
Eos Pengwern

An extremely sensible and well-thought-through article addressing an issue which anyone remotely serious about an independent Wales needs to consider carefully. I’d endorse everything that the author has said, and simply add that as well as some very professional military personnel, Wales also has a significant and very capable Defence industry with a number of companies supplying both the MoD and other countries’ armed forces: companies such as General Dynamics in Blackwood, Airbus Defence in Newport, QioptiQ in St. Asaph and dozens of SMEs. It’s important that these continue to be able to sell into the rest of the British… Read more »

leigh richards
Guest

A timely piece from Bleddyn, as tho they are rarely discussed in welsh indy circles defence and intelligence are certainly matters an independent welsh state will have to consider and plan for. Personally i hope we follow the example of the irish republic and have nothing to do with the war mongers of Nato, and that welsh soldiers are only ever deployed outside wales as part of a peace keeping role authorised by the UN. While on a related point we can be sure that british spooks will be doing all they can to thwart efforts to secure welsh independence… Read more »

Capitalist and Welshnash
Guest
Capitalist and Welshnash

Of course an independent Wales will need an army, we are next door to England.

For security, our armed forces should operate entirely in Welsh.

Gareth
Guest
Gareth

I assume that’s a joke?
Sadly with some hard-line nationalists one never can tell.

Edeyrn
Guest
Edeyrn

“I assume that’s a joke?” – As someone who would ideally wish to see self rule for all people and communities and not a hardline nationalist in ideology……..Let’s be honest here. Historically the English state has a record of invasion and invading Wales. – So for a joke to be made about it….should hardly rattle anyone with a knowledge of history. Im not sure why you are so rattled by it. Also the idea of coding through Welsh only, while a very good idea in the past, is getting a bit outdated with rapidly improving language translations Quantum cryptography is… Read more »

Gareth
Guest
Gareth

I hardly think that an independent England/what’s left of the UK would invade an independent Wales (or Scotland for that matter) so your comment is, with respect, largely irrelevant.

Edeyrn
Guest
Edeyrn

You would be naive to the world if you think neighbours dont interfere into the goings on those next door within a statist system, it happens all the time

Capitalist and Welshnash
Guest
Capitalist and Welshnash

Our current, tolerant and compromising era in history, while I support our current era’s values, this is not the end of human history. Less tolerant historical periods will arise. Wales must be ready for them by teaching itself about its military past.

ERNEST
Guest
ERNEST

I too am glad we are addressing this issue. Yes, I do hope we do follow the Irish republic and have nothing to do with US LED NATO. They were wrong in Iraq, they were wrong in Libya, and wrong about Syria! The USA use of chemical weapons in the 1970s against the Vietnamese population. Their role in the 1973 coup in Chile, etc….. leigh richards is right to mention the role of ‘british spooks’ – we do not know of the true role of US/UK (imperialism) special relationship which could compromise the future independence of Wales, and indeed Scotland,… Read more »

Owen
Guest

Here’s some additional work on a few of the defence issues Bleddyn raises in his piece:

https://stateofwales.com/category/defending-wales/

Gras
Guest
Gras

One of the main reasons I want an Independent Wales is so that we can retake our place in the world, and be proud to do so. I’d want a defence force to be just that, for defence. Not aggressive imperialism and blowing up the middle east for a further 100 years. I think the table in the article should’ve included Wales’ contribution to UK defence, then we’d see how much more we’re contributing compared to Countries of comparable size and population. It’s important, as our ‘deficit’ is one of the things that’s used to bat down talk of independence… Read more »

Gwyn
Guest
Gwyn

Very interesting. Thank you for your detailed analysis.

Can I request that the following two columns be added to the table, in order to make the data easier to read?

1 – Defense budget as a percentage of GDP (to see how much it is for each country in relation to NATOs minimum requirement of 2%

2 – Defense budget per head. As it is, the Defense budget is very difficult to read without the context of population.

Thanks.

Dafis
Guest
Dafis

The basic data is already tabulated so you can work it out for yourself . Budget as % of GDP = col.1 x col.2. divided by col.3. per head figure is col.3 divided by col.1. This is a bit simplistic because the actual cost burden falls on a smaller population in that not everybody is a direct tax payer. Factor in other indirect or consumer taxes, corporate taxes etc and it probably doesn’t matter anyway. As for NATO compliance that only matters if you wish to join and be pushed around by US and residual UK ! The whole purpose… Read more »

Gwyn
Guest
Gwyn

Well yeah, calculating the values for these columns is simple enough. My resquest wasn’t so much to help myself, but to help the 99% of other people who wouldn’t be bothered to whip out a calculator, make 20 calculations, then superimpose the results next to the original table to enable them to get the whole story here. Thanks.

Sionyn
Guest
Sionyn

Great to see this article. Detailing options for an independent Wales. It really isn’t such a difficult topic, there are, as Bleddyn shows, so many different forms and set ups for defence. Central to it is the question which is would a country attack Wales on its own? Would Russia really march through the north European plain, through Poland, Germany, Benelux and France, through England, just to knock out Wales? No. So Wales need not have forces to take on Russia on itself. It works together. And in this world, there are ways Wales could make a unique or bespoke… Read more »

Keith Parry
Guest
Keith Parry

Welsh Free State greatest threat will be English State Security Services. Who will do what they do.

Jonathan Edwards
Guest
Jonathan Edwards

How strange to see this subject getting straight treatment. But not unprecedented – see “Phenomenon of Welshness, The – Or, How Many Aircraft Carriers Would an Independent Wales Need?”. By Sion Jobbins, very deft and readable. Not been Plaid’s strongest point. Plaid is instinctively pacifist. But having been anti-NATO loses Plaid a lot of support from the Welsh middle ground. Put Wales at the heart of NATO if you want to restrain it, don’t opt out. Makes you wonder what else Plaid could do to move to the middle ground. Challenge Labour on complacent educational standards, way down from traditional… Read more »

Tame Frontiersman
Guest
Tame Frontiersman

A new Welsh defence force needs to be in place before independence day, as it possible that elements in the British military might collude with anti-independence factions to stage a coup at a time when loyalties might be divided. Iceland’s victory over the RN in the Cod Wars, show what Wales’ needs in terms of patrolling its costal water and fisheries. In considering its alliances Wales needs to consider whether any alliance would raise its profile as a target or subject it to a new hegemony. How would NATO membership benefit Wales? How little would Wales’ membership bring to NATO… Read more »